The Cincinnati Reds Have a Glaring Lineup Problem: Why Fixing It Next Season Involves Tough Choices and a Massive Shift in Roster Philosophy

The blueprint for the Cincinnati Reds lineup heading into the next season is deceptively simple in its theory, yet incredibly complex in its execution. To fix the glaring offensive issues that have plagued the team, the front office is going to have to make some incredibly tough decisions regarding their everyday personnel. The quest for a balanced lineup is the ultimate goal for whatever the next season looks like—regardless of potential labor disputes, impending lockouts, or lost time. Whenever the Reds eventually step back onto the diamond, they will desperately need to find a state of equilibrium within their batting order.

Looking back at the previous offseason, the overarching narrative surrounding the Cincinnati Reds was a desperate need to add sheer power to the roster. During that previous campaign, the overwhelming feeling among fans and analysts alike was that the team was loaded with weak-hitting contact players who simply could not drive the ball out of the ballpark. In a frantic attempt to remedy this perceived weakness, the front office aggressively pivoted in the complete opposite direction. They seemingly sacrificed reliable, everyday contact hitting for the allure of all-or-nothing power bats. This radical shift in offensive philosophy has created a highly volatile lineup that heavily relies on the long ball while struggling immensely to string together consecutive base hits. The reality of modern baseball is that you do not have to completely sacrifice contact for power; you simply have to find the absolute right mix of personnel.

It has become incredibly common for frustrated fans to direct their anger toward the coaching staff when an offense stagnates. However, the current struggles of the Cincinnati Reds have absolutely nothing to do with the hitting coach. A hitting coach could completely revolutionize his philosophy overnight, and it would not matter in the slightest with the current personnel constructed on this roster. The reality is stark and unavoidable: the Reds must acquire better offensive personnel, specifically a high-tier contact hitter who can balance the top-heavy power numbers.

When searching for the ideal candidate to fill this massive void, one name immediately jumps off the page: Luis Arraez. Interestingly enough, Arraez is a player that many, including prominent voices covering the team, actively dismissed and did not want during the previous offseason. However, the landscape has drastically changed, and acquiring Arraez should be a top priority. The immediate counterargument to targeting a player of his caliber is the inevitable bidding war and the massive financial cost associated with securing his services. But the financial dynamics of the sport are shifting. Based on the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement proposals from the owners, a mandatory salary floor of $171 million is being heavily discussed. Currently, the Reds’ payroll, when calculated through the lens of luxury tax numbers, sits at roughly $128 million. This implies that the franchise must add nearly $50 million in payroll just to reach the proposed minimum salary floor. Dedicating a significant portion of that required spending to a premier contact machine like Luis Arraez would be a brilliant strategic move to stabilize a chaotic offense.

The statistical reality of the Cincinnati Reds’ current offensive approach is alarming. The team struggles mightily with making consistent contact, resulting in a bizarre and highly ineffective combination at the plate. Not only do the Reds fail to make contact when they swing, but they also simply do not swing the bat very often. By keeping the bat resting on their shoulders, they are actively depriving themselves of the very opportunities needed to put the ball in play. When they finally do decide to pull the trigger, the swing-and-miss rates are staggering. As it currently stands, the Cincinnati Reds rank in the bottom five of the entire league in both overall contact rate and overall swing rate.

To compound these deeply concerning issues, the Reds actually lead the major leagues in one specific, highly detrimental offensive category: empty strikes. An empty strike is the frustrating combination of a called strike looking and a swing-and-miss (often referred to on advanced stat sheets as CSW, or Called Strikes and Whiffs). The league average for empty strikes sits at a highly manageable 27 percent. The Reds, however, operate well above that threshold as a collective unit, currently sitting at an abysmal 28.4 percent. While a 1.4 percent increase over the league average might initially sound like a trivial statistical anomaly not worth losing one’s mind over, the context of a full baseball season magnifies this issue exponentially. This percentage is based on the tens of thousands of pitches a team sees over the grueling marathon of a regular season. One percent of tens of thousands equates to a massive volume of pitches that the Reds are simply giving away to the opposition.

The internal numbers regarding these empty strikes are even more concerning when broken down by individual players. Currently, only four players in the entire Reds organization are operating below the league average empty strike rate of 27 percent. Sal Stewart and JJ Bleday have done an exceptional job of limiting their empty strikes, showcasing a disciplined approach that the rest of the roster desperately lacks. Hector Rodriguez has also shown promise in this area, alongside Edwin Arroyo during his brief stint at the major league level before heading to Triple-A. However, it is vital to note that Rodriguez and Arroyo represent incredibly small sample sizes, making it difficult to project long-term success. Aside from the exciting potential of Stewart and Bleday, the rest of the qualified, everyday roster is failing to protect the plate.

The most glaring example of these deeply flawed plate appearances comes from veteran Eugenio Suarez. The numbers surrounding Suarez’s season are nothing short of striking. One out of every three pitches that Suarez sees at the plate results in an empty strike. An astonishing 33.3 percent of the total pitches thrown his way this year have either been watched for a called strike or wildly swung at and missed. This level of offensive inefficiency is simply ridiculous and serves as a devastating anchor on the middle of the lineup. Unfortunately, Suarez’s struggles are indicative of a much larger, systemic issue that permeates the entire clubhouse.

When evaluating the engine that drives this offense, all eyes naturally gravitate toward the dynamic duo at the top of the lineup: Elly De La Cruz and the surrounding core. When the top of the order is struggling to make things happen, it becomes incredibly difficult for the Cincinnati Reds to win baseball games. De La Cruz is universally recognized as one of the best and most electrifying hitters on the team, yet a deep dive into his advanced metrics reveals a shocking amount of room for growth. Currently, a concerning 30 percent of the pitches De La Cruz sees result in an empty strike. Furthermore, he swings the bat at a rate well below the league average. While the average major league hitter swings at 47.4 percent of pitches, De La Cruz only offers at 41 percent. Given that advanced tracking data indicates he has seen over 1,812 pitches so far this year, that 6 percent differential represents a massive number of highly hittable pitches where he simply leaves the bat resting on his shoulder.

This is not to suggest that Elly De La Cruz is having a bad year. By all conventional measures, he is having a very good, highly productive season. Despite a recent minor slump, he continues to hit the baseball incredibly hard and barrel up pitches with elite consistency. He is firmly in the top two percent of all major league hitters in average exit velocity, and his hard-hit rate places him in the top eight percent of the sport. The expectation is that he will surge toward the end of the season, transforming a very good campaign into a truly great one. However, his ultimate opportunity for exponential growth lies in simply being more aggressive. In a fascinating twist of fate, when he first burst onto the scene, analysts and fans begged him to be more patient and refine his eye. Now, it appears he has overcorrected, becoming almost too patient. While he is well above the league average at limiting swings on pitches outside the strike zone—a highly commendable trait—he is also passing up too many strikes over the heart of the plate. A slight uptick in controlled aggression could cause his offensive production to skyrocket to unprecedented levels.

The contact rate issue extends far beyond De La Cruz and Suarez. Only seven Reds players this entire season have managed a contact rate better than the league average, and staggeringly, only two of those players are currently active on the major league roster. Due to a series of devastating injuries and mid-season trades, the team’s best contact hitters are no longer available. Players like Spencer Steer and Nathaniel Lowe, who actually led the team in contact rate and successfully limited empty strikes while maintaining a high hard-hit rate, are deeply missed in the daily lineup. The departure of Lowe remains a constant, lingering frustration for a team desperate for exactly his specific skill set.

While the contact numbers are undeniably poor, the underlying quality of the contact the Reds do manage to make is actually quite spectacular. The front office can point to six hitters currently operating above the league average hard-hit rate. Elly De La Cruz leads the charge, destroying baseballs at a 50 percent hard-hit rate compared to the league average of 38.8 percent. Tyler Stephenson follows closely at 46.6 percent, with JJ Bleday at 40.6 percent and Sal Stewart at 39.4 percent. The Reds as a team are tied with the powerhouse New York Yankees in overall barrel rate. Even more fascinating, the Reds sit solely behind the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Dodgers in an advanced metric known as xwOBAcon (Expected Weighted On-Base Average on Contact). This highly predictive statistic indicates that based on the physical quality of the contact they are making, the Reds’ overall offensive production should easily rank in the top three of the entire league. The massive disparity between their elite quality of contact and their dismal actual run production strongly suggests the team has been subjected to a brutal wave of bad luck. However, relying on luck to turn is not a viable strategy; securing a premier contact hitter to bridge the gap remains the absolute top priority.

The players who are fundamentally dragging down these underlying metrics are a constant source of debate. Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, TJ Friedl, and Eugenio Suarez have all posted alarming numbers combining poor contact rates, high empty strikes, and low hard-hit rates. While Friedl is actively working his way out of this slump, and Marte’s playing time has been strictly managed due to his daily struggles, McLain and Suarez continue to receive everyday at-bats. These are the specific positions the front office must aggressively target for upgrades next season.

Shifting the focus to the pitching staff, the final stretch of the season presents incredibly distinct and crucial opportunities for the rotation. The ascension of Chase Burns has been a revelation for the franchise. With Hunter Greene officially sidelined for the entirety of next year due to Tommy John surgery, Burns has firmly inherited the mantle of the undisputed ace. Because the front office smartly secured him to a long-term contract extension earlier in the season, protecting his golden arm is the paramount concern. The organization is keenly aware of the disastrous consequences of failing to protect highly prized arms, making the management of Burns’ remaining workload a delicate balancing act. With the playoffs completely out of reach—sitting mathematically eliminated from the division and miles away from a wild card spot—there is zero justification for risking Burns’ future. His innings limit must be strictly capped between 140 and 145 innings to prevent undue stress.

As Burns navigates his final few starts, his primary objective is refining his secondary pitches to limit hard contact. While his overall season has been magnificent, boasting an elite 2.61 ERA and leading all of Major League Baseball in individual win-loss percentage, he has occasionally been susceptible to the long ball. This vulnerability stems directly from his changeup. Relying heavily on an overpowering fastball and a devastating slider, Burns rarely utilizes his changeup, typically reserving it exclusively for left-handed batters. When he does throw it, opposing hitters have heavily clobbered the pitch. Transforming this changeup from a predictable “show me” pitch into a legitimate, terrifying weapon must be his primary focus throughout the upcoming offseason. Despite a slight dip in his strikeout rate compared to the previous year and a marginal increase in his walk rate, Burns remains on the precipice of history, looking to become the first Reds pitcher to record 15 wins in a single season since Luis “La Piedra” Castillo accomplished the feat prior to the pandemic in 2019.

Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo faces an entirely different set of complex questions as he returns to the mound. The primary concern surrounding Lodolo is the physical status of his left index finger and how it directly impacts his signature breaking ball. During his first start back from a lengthy month-long absence, the breaking ball looked sharp and tight, seemingly thrown without significant stress or pain. The ultimate goal is for fans and coaches to exist in a world where Lodolo’s finger is no longer a daily source of crippling anxiety. The next vital step in his progression is seamlessly tunneling his fastball and changeup off the success of that breaking ball. In his previous outing against the Chicago White Sox, whenever he strayed from his primary breaking pitch, the secondary offerings were hit incredibly hard. Building stamina is also paramount. After a carefully monitored 70-pitch return, the expectation is that Lodolo will push toward the 85 to 90-pitch mark, a crucial jump that signifies the difference between an early exit and a deep, dominant start, which the bullpen desperately needs during a grueling stretch of eight games in seven days.

As the weekend series unfolds, certain individual performances are poised to dictate the narrative. Elly De La Cruz is heavily favored to dominate the opposing pitching staff. Historically, De La Cruz absolutely terrorizes the Miami Marlins, boasting a staggering .349 batting average and a .590 slugging percentage against them over 93 career plate appearances. Despite a surprisingly quiet 3-for-15 start against Miami this specific season, a massive statistical correction is imminent. Combining his historical dominance with his elite exit velocities and barrel rates, De La Cruz is primed for a spectacular weekend display.

The most shocking prediction for the upcoming slate of games centers around a player who has drawn the relentless ire of the fanbase: Ke’Bryan Hayes. By all traditional metrics, Hayes has endured a miserable, highly heavily criticized campaign. However, the advanced analytics paint an entirely different and genuinely fascinating picture. The metrics scream that Hayes is the definitive poster child for bad luck in Major League Baseball. He currently possesses a better-than-league-average hard-hit rate and a better-than-league-average contact rate. Despite consistently putting the bat on the ball with authority, his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is sitting at an impossibly low .152, which is nearly 140 points below the league average. It defies all baseball logic and mathematical probability for a player making this level of quality contact to continue producing such poor overall results. The numbers strongly dictate that a massive breakout is lurking right around the corner. Facing a pitching staff he has seen well in the past, Hayes is highly likely to record a multi-hit game, and perhaps even launch a momentum-shifting home run, finally finding the open grass that has eluded his sharply hit balls all season long.

The road ahead for the Cincinnati Reds is fraught with complicated evaluations and vital structural adjustments. The blueprint for sustainable winning is visible, buried deep within the advanced metrics and exit velocities. But translating that raw, chaotic potential into consistent, balanced production will require the front office to admit their previous philosophical mistakes and finally prioritize the beautiful, necessary art of making contact.